What to expect for fall 2017 weather in Fort Collins

Jacy Marmaduke
The Coloradoan
In this file photo, fall colors shine from the Larimer County Workforce Center on Thursday, October 15, 2015.

Fort Collins rang in fall 2017 with temperatures in the 70s. If you like that, you'll love the National Weather Service's seasonal predictions for fall.

Although temperatures will feel decidedly crisper this weekend, the NWS Climate Prediction Center forecasts a strong chance of above-average temperatures from October through December. No word yet on precipitation, which is historically tough to predict in Northern Colorado.

Here's what to expect for temperatures, snow and more in the Fort Collins area this fall:

Temperatures

The seasonal outlook predicts about a 40 percent chance of above-average temperatures in Northern Colorado this fall. That means there's a 30 percent chance each for below-average and average temperatures.

What's "average" in Fort Collins? Here's what the Colorado Climate Center's 1981-2010 averages tell us:

October: Highs in the mid-60s; lows in the upper 30s

November: Highs in the lower 60s; lows in the mid-20s

December: Highs in the lower 40s; lows in the upper teens

The AccuWeather long-range forecast predicts highs from the 50s to low 70s in October, but remember that long-range forecasts are less certain than their short-range counterparts.

Last fall was also warmer than usual for Fort Collins, as highs careened into the 70s and 80s until chilling out in December. But the strangest thing about autumn 2016 was the temperature whiplash: November saw highs ranging from the 30s to the 70s, and December high temperatures frequently changed by 30-plus degrees within a few days.

More:Fort Collins seeks volunteers for tree-planting event

Snow and rain

During the last decade, Fort Collins has generally seen its first measurable snow between late October and mid-November.

The historic average for the season’s first measurable snowfall is Oct. 27, based on 1900-2014 data from the Colorado Climate Center. But for the last three years, snow hasn't fallen until well into November.

The first snow of the season is usually less than 3 inches.

Here's the average snowfall for each month of fall:

October: 3.6 inches (last year, we saw no measurable snow)

November: 8.6 inches (last year, we saw 3 inches)

December: 8.4 inches (last year, we saw 8.2 inches)

Fort Collins has been in drought territory for the last two weeks, classified as "abnormally dry" by the U.S. Drought Monitor. The NWS drought outlook doesn't have any predictions for what will happen to our drought status this season, and the seasonal climate prediction says we have equal chances of average, below-average and above-average precipitation totals.

The warmer it is, the more likely our precipitation will fall as rain rather than snow. Fall is generally Fort Collins' second-driest season behind winter.

More:The US West had a snowy winter, so why the fiery summer?

Other stuff

The first fall frost usually happens in October, which will mean no more risk of contracting West Nile virus. The latest fall frost to date was on Oct. 24, 2015. 

Fall colors usually peak in early October, and Fort Collins is starting to see some patchy coloration around town. Drought and cooler temperatures trigger color change.

Sunset time has jumped back more than half an hour since Sept. 1, so the sun now sets about 7 p.m. By the end of October, the sun will set about 6 p.m., and by the end of November, we’ll be back to those dreaded 4:30 p.m. sunsets.

Already thinking about winter?

The Climate Prediction Center issued a La Nina Watch for this winter. 

La Nina winters have historically brought warmer and drier weather to the Front Range, according to a 9News analysis.

The Farmers' Almanac 2018 winter outlook forecasts cold temperatures and moderate snowfall for Colorado and predicts winter weather will be less harsh than usual.

More:Colorado fall colors guide: Where and when to go