How landlocked Colorado became a hurricane-forecasting hot spot

The last time a hurricane hit Colorado was — well, never.

So it might come as a surprise to some that a CSU team produces the longest-running seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecast, which is in its 35th year.

We called the team’s lead forecaster and research scientist, Phil Klotzbach, to talk about how Colorado State University came to be home to the now-renowned CSU Tropical Meteorology Project. Klotzbach leads the forecast team remotely from the California Bay Area.

For 2018, the CSU team predicts slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane activity. Researchers cited the relatively low likelihood of a significant El Niño as a primary factor.

Q: How did Colorado State University end up with such a robust hurricane forecasting program?

A: Largely because of the legacy left by the late William Gray and Herbert Riehl.

“Dr. Gray, if he were alive, would tell you it’s because a storm surge can’t hit you at 5,000 feet — that’s why we do the forecasts in Colorado."

Riehl, “who started the atmospheric science department back in early 1960s, was a big tropical cyclone guy. He was at the University of Chicago, which is still nowhere near hurricanes. Dr. Gray worked under Herbert Riehl in Chicago, so Herbert Riehl offered him a position and Dr. Gray came out here. Gray started seasonal hurricane forecasts in 1984, but he’d been in the department for 20 years prior to that. He did a lot of other meaningful work with hurricanes other than seasonal forecasts, although that’s what he might be best known for in the general public.”

Klotzbach, who’s worked at the CSU department since 2000, has co-authored the forecasts along with associate professor of atmospheric sciences Michael Bell since Gray’s death in 2016.

“We’re trying to keep that portion of Dr. Gray’s legacy alive and well, hopefully for another 50 years.”

The team’s seasonal forecast couldn’t have predicted the destruction of Hurricane Harvey because it doesn’t focus on where or when specific storms will happen. Instead, the forecast focuses on overall activity for the hurricane season. According to the team’s latest forecast, this season will be more active than usual because of neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions and a warmer-than-usual tropical Atlantic.

Q: Why are seasonal hurricane forecasts important?

A: “There’s an inherent curiosity. It’s the same reason people like to know who’s going to win the World Series in March. People want to know how active the season’s going to be. Obviously, the fact that it’s year 34 and people are still paying attention means we have some skill with it, but it’s not perfect.

“We couldn’t say on June 1 that Harvey was going to come up and hit Texas at the end of August, but we could say that conditions are more conducive than normal to an active season. People need to be prepared the same every year. You could have a very devastating hurricane in a quiet season.

"All it takes is that one storm to make it a very active season for you.”

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But human impact is a factor in the storm, Klotzbach said.

“Harris County, Texas, was the fastest-growing county in the country for (eight) years running. You have a lot more concrete where you used to have grass and plants and shrubs” — and urbanized areas respond differently to flooding than plant life. “…But people’ve gotta live somewhere. You can’t just tell people not to build a house somewhere. It’s tough. “