What would you pay for gas to reduce air pollution?

Would you be willing to spend $5 to $10 more on gas each month if it meant a more picturesque northern Front Range?

State agencies are mulling a trio of gasoline changes that would quell smog and air pollution but increase prices at the pump.

Ken Lloyd, executive director of the Regional Air Quality Council, said it will study the economic and environmental impacts of the potential changes. The council, a planning group for the area that includes Fort Collins, will commission the study in the next year.

A 2011 Energy Analysts International study on the changes indicated they’d boost gas prices between 11 and 19 cents on the gallon, which would increase the average driver’s fuel costs by about $64 to $111 per year or $5 to $10 per month. Those numbers might be different today, so a new study is needed, Lloyd said.

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The changes, which the council is considering for the northern Front Range area only, would decrease ozone levels in a region that has long struggled to meet federal air quality requirements. The area is one of a few dozen in the country that remains out of compliance with the Environmental Protection Agency’s 2008 ozone standard and its more stringent 2015 standard.

Ozone, the main component of smog, forms on hot, sunny days when common pollutants react in the air. Ozone and smog inhalation can lead to respiratory health issues, especially for children and the elderly, and many studies have tied it to heart disease.

Plus, noncompliance triggers regulatory repercussions from the EPA, so the RAQC has long been working to reduce ozone levels in an area hampered by high natural ozone levels and increasing vehicular travel. The gas changes are just one piece of the puzzle, Lloyd said.

“We’re not looking at this because we think it’s a silver bullet, but it’s something we need to look at” because it has reduced ozone levels in other areas, Lloyd said.

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The changes under consideration are:

• Eliminating the ethanol waiver, which allows gas blended with ethanol to have a higher Reid Vapor Pressure than standard gas. RVP is a measurement of a gasoline’s tendency to evaporate, so gases with higher RVP levels emit more ozone-creating pollutants.
• Lowering the summertime RVP standard for gas, which would decrease ozone-creating emissions when smog is more likely to form.
• Opting into the federal reformulated gasoline program, which would give the region access to cleaner-burning gas.

There’s no evidence the latter two changes would decrease mileage or performance. Eliminating the ethanol waiver could have the opposite effect because ethanol gas offers lower mileage than regular gas.

All three changes have big cost impacts for refineries that lack the equipment needed to produce more environmentally friendly products. The 2011 study pegged the cost impact to refineries at $250 million to $710 million.

Colorado gets its gasoline from about 10 refineries, but only one of them is in the state. That means other refineries could choose to simply stop supplying gas to northern Front Range markets to avoid making costly equipment updates.

“We’re kind of an island here in the intermountain West,” Lloyd said.

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The estimated air quality benefit is a question the council hopes to answer in the study. Federal reformulated gas in particular helped participating areas reduce smog-forming pollutants by 7 to 27 percent in 2000, when the EPA rolled out the current version of the gas.

If the air quality council recommends the gas changes, the state Air Quality Control Division would need to enact them. Some changes, like adopting a new statewide RVP standard, could require legislation.

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Carrying out the changes would probably take between three and five years, Lloyd said, so the earliest Northern Colorado residents would see the price bump is in about four years.

“It’s a ways off, but ozone’s an issue we’re going to be dealing with for a long time, so we can start looking at those things now,” Lloyd said.

Asked about the gas changes in a Coloradoan Facebook post, commenters offered mixed reviews.

“My wallet can only take so much,” Ryan Chalstrom wrote. “All these nickel and dime taxes are taking away the ability to save for retirement and our kids’ college from middle class families like mine. Colorado is quickly becoming unaffordable.”

Daniele Landwehr said the price increase is “not a tax, (but) an increase in the price of a good” that could encourage people to consider alternative transportation and limit future healthcare costs.

“It would all depend on the cost/benefit of the price increase and the magnitude of the benefits, but I think we would be wise to do more research and consider it,” she wrote.

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Ozone at a glance

A look at how Northern Colorado stacks up to Environmental Protection Agency ozone pollution standards.

70 parts per billion: New ozone standard adopted in October 2015

75 ppb: Prior ozone standard adopted in 2008

78 ppb: Larimer County ozone, as measured in 2012-14

82 ppb: 2012-14 ozone in Denver Metro Area/North Front Range zone, which includes Fort Collins

71 ppb: Estimated Larimer County ozone in 2025, still out of compliance

Source: EPA