Leing has slim chance of beating Polis, analysts say

George Leing, a political unknown running against Democratic Jared Polis in Colorado's 2nd Congressional District, faces many challenges in his fight for what experts say is an unattainable seat for a Republican.

Leing, a 56-year-old attorney from Niwot, is attempting to win a spot for his party in an uber-Democratic congressional district, second only to Denver when it comes to voting inclinations, said Peter Hanson, a professor of political science at University of Denver. In most issues, from immigration to federal control of water quality, the two men stand diametrically opposed.

The independently wealthy Jared Polis, 39, who was elected in 2008 and has served three terms in Congress, is also a formidable opponent when it comes to fundraising. A month before the election, Polis had raised several hundred thousand dollars more than Leing, campaign finance records show. Nonetheless, for a Republican with slim chances of getting elected, Leing's $140,000 of campaign finances suggest that some voters believe he has a fighting chance, said Hanson.

"Leing has raised essentially the bare minimum you need to run a congressional race," Hanson said. "That's interesting. That suggests that he is being taken seriously by some donors. And it's more than you would see a challenger raising against Diana DeGette, for example."

Like Polis, Rep. DeGette is reigning Democrat in her district, which includes the Denver area.

After it was expanded in 2010, Colorado's 2nd Congressional District now sweeps from Jefferson County north to Larimer County and includes the mountain counties of Clear Creek, Grand and Summit.

Hanson traces districts' political leanings back to presidential elections, and the second district was solidly blue in the 2012 election, he said. Nonetheless, the redistricting meant that Democrats like Polis had to contend with more Republican voters in historically purple counties like Larimer, said Danielle Oliveto, Polis' campaign manager.

"Our district is not as Democratic as people think it is," she said. "We're running it like it's a competitive campaign."

Both Polis and Leing have been traveling the district, and Leing has been trying to combat what he considers his greatest weakness — he is not a well-known politician, unlike Polis.

Polis has a made a name for himself championing college affordability and immigration rights, but the Congressman also has been a notorious backer of state legislation that would limit oil and gas development. The 2nd District sits on the western fringes of Colorado's oil shale boom in the northeast corner of the state and has been a hot-bed of controversy when it comes to hydraulic fracturing, an oil and gas extraction technique.

This year, with financial help from Polis, grass-roots groups like Coloradans for Safe and Clean Energy managed to get the thousands of signatures needed to put two potential measures on the ballot. Both measures, known as Initiatives 88 and 89, would have severely limited oil and gas development in urban areas.

Polis made a surprising about-face in August, however, when he joined Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper in a plan to scratch the measures from the ballot in exchange for the formation of an oil and gas task force. The move infuriated many groups that had relied on Polis' support. The upset likely will have little impact on Polis' bid for re-election, Hanson thinks.

Leing, by contrast, hopes that he will be remembered as a pro-energy candidate, who believes in developing a diverse energy system that does not ostracize certain kinds of development. Leing, who once worked for a company that developed wind dams, is a supporter of the oil and gas task force, he said.

"We are well-served to have a better open discussion about this," Leing said of oil and gas development. "We want to make sure that everything is being done in exploration and production to make sure it is safe. We want also to not just cut things off."

Leing and Polis stand on opposite sides of the Environmental Protection Agency's controversial proposed expansion of the Clean Water Act, a rule known as the "Waters of the U.S." The rule would expand the definition of bodies of water that require protection under the Clean Water Act. Polis has been an outspoken proponent of the proposed rule and has been joined by Fort Collins craft brewer New Belgium Brewing Co. and the Rocky Mountain Farmers Union.

The proposed rule is unpopular with industrial farming operations, so-called "Big Ag," many of which are concerned that the Clean Water Act would take control over how farmers and ranchers manage their lands. Leing sees the EPA's proposed changes as overstepping the jurisdiction of the federal government, he said.

"I just don't think it's appropriate for the EPA to be expanding its reach through a new definition," Leing said. "It just makes it impossible for people to plan around, if they don't know where they can plow, where they can utilize their land."

Although Leing may have found some supporters in Northern Colorado and has raised enough money to give himself a fighting chance, Hanson considers the race to be a done-deal, in favor of the Democrats. Surprises have been known to happen in congressional races, Hanson said, citing the recent upset that put Republican favorite Eric Cantor out of office in Virginia.

Nonetheless, Hanson remains confident that odds, and the voters, will favor Polis.

"District 2 is incredibly safe for the Democrats," he said. "It is very difficult to imagine a scenario in which Polis would face a serious challenge from a Republican."

MEET THE CANDIDATES

Jared Polis

Party affiliation: Democrat

Age: 39

Place of residence: Boulder

Occupation: Congressman

Prior political experience: U.S. Representative for Colorado's 2nd Congressional District since 2008, served three terms. Served on the Colorado State Board of Education from 2000 to 2004.

Website:www.jaredpolis.com/

George Leing

Party affiliation: Republican

Age: 56

Place of residence: Niwot

Occupation: Attorney

Prior political experience: Chairman of Boulder County Republican Party from 2012 to 2014.

Website: www.georgeleing.com/